000			02951namna2200313 a 4500
005			20240528083327.0
008			100510r20102007nyua b 001 0 eng
010			_a 2010292618
020			_a9780141034591
040			_cAE-ShPAA
050			_aQ375 _b.T35 2008
082			_a003/.54 _222
100	1		_aTaleb, Nassim Nicholas, _d1960- _919075
245	1	4	_aThe black swan : _bthe impact of the highly improbable / _cNassim Nicholas Taleb.
260			_aLondon _bPenguin Books _cc2008
300			_axxxiii, 444 p. : _bill. ; _c21 cm.
500			_a"Originally published in hardcover and in slightly different form in the United States ... by Random House in 2007."-T.p. verso.
501			_aP.B
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (p. [400]-429) and index.
505	0		_aPrologue -- Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans -- Postscript essay: on robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest ; Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile ; Margaritas ante porcos ; Asperger and the ontological black swan ; (Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy ; Fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems ; What to do with the fourth quadrant ; Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society ; Amor fati: how to become indestructible.
520			_aExamines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.
650		0	_aForecasting. _919076
650		0	_aUncertainty (Information theory) _xSocial aspects. _919077
856	4	1	_3Sample text _uhttp://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy1009/2010292618-s.html
856	4	2	_3Contributor biographical information _uhttp://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy1009/2010292618-b.html
856	4	2	_3Publisher description _uhttp://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy1009/2010292618-d.html
910			_a2113
942			_cBK
999			_c1562 _d1562